Prospects for Skills-Based Export Growth in a Labour-Abundant, Resource-Rich Economy: Indonesia in Comparative Perspective

In an integrated global economy, specialisation in trade is an increasingly prominent strategy. A labour-abundant, resource-rich economy like Indonesia faces stiff competition for labourintensive manufactures; meanwhile, rapid growth in demand for resources from China and India exposes it to the 'curse' of resource wealth. This diminishes prospects for more diversified growth based on renewable resources like human capital. Using an international panel data set we explore the influence of resource wealth, foreign direct investment, and human capital on the share of skill-intensive products in total exports. FDI and human capital increase this share; resource wealth diminishes it. We use the results to compare Indonesia with Thailand and Malaysia. Indonesia's reliance on skill-intensive exports would have been higher had it achieved higher levels of FDI and skills. Indonesia's performance in accumulating these endowments, and its relative resource abundance, impede diversification in production and trade. Finally, we discuss policy lessons and options.

Trade And Inequality With Limited Labor Mobility: Theory And Evidence From China

Does globalization increase inequality in developing countries, and ifso, how? In a theoretical model of a regionally heterogeneous economy, we show how different regional rates of technical progress due to trade and FDI interact with constraints to unskilled labor mobility. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in the former grow faster than in the latter. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may also raise inequality within each region. It could even reduce absolute income per capita in the less favored region. We test these predictions with Chinese data from the Open Door era. Results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional andintraregional inequality. Moreover, growth of skills-based export industries in coastal regions is associated, other things equal, with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces.

Trade, Technology and Inequality in a Developing Country: Theory and Evidence from China

Could globalization--specifically, increased international trade and openness to foreign investment--increase inequality in developing countries? Empirical studies in many such economies show that expanding trade and FDI are associated with higher inequality in wages and regional incomes. However, there is no agreement regarding the cause of such increases. We present a theoretical model showing how interactions between factor mobility restrictions and different rates of technical progress (due to trade and FDI) in a regionally heterogeneous economy can explain the evolution of inequality. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in favored regions grow faster than in less favored regions. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may be the source of rising inequality within each region, and even of falling per capita incomes in the less favored region. We test our predictions with data from China's coastal and inland provinces. The results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional and intraregional inequality. In addition, growth of skills-based export industries in coastal regions, other things equal, is associated with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces.

Trade, Technology and Inequality in a Developing Country: Theory and Evidence from China AGRICULTURAL & APPLIED ECONOMICS STAFF PAPER SERIES TRADE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INEQUALITY IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

ii Could globalization-specifically, increased international trade and openness to foreign investment-increase inequality in developing countries? Empirical studies in many such economies show that expanding trade and FDI are associated with higher inequality in wages and regional incomes. However, there is no agreement regarding the cause of such increases. We present a theoretical model showing how interactions between factor mobility restrictions and different rates of technical progress (due to trade and FDI) in a regionally heterogeneous economy can explain the evolution of inequality. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in favored regions grow faster than in less favored regions. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may be the source of rising inequality within each region, and even of falling per capita incomes in the less favored region. We test our predictions with data from China's coastal and inland provinces. The results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional and intraregional inequality. In addition, growth of skills-based export industries in coastal regions, other things equal, is associated with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces. JEL codes: F16, O15, R1